ALERTS: Flood Watch is in effect from 2 p.m. Thursday until 2 p.m. Friday at the latest for Sullivan, Orange, Putnam, Rockland and Westchester counties.

A widespread 1.5 to 3 inches of rain is likely with localized amounts possible higher. Rainfall rates could be up to 1-2 inches per hour. There will be brief periods of time that rate could be higher.

The heat wave is over! A slow-moving cold front is going to completely change the weather scene across the region. As the front sags from northwest to southeast, showers and storms will develop, especially this afternoon. Clouds will increase throughout the day and limit how warm we get. Temperatures should stay in the low-80s. Some folks may stay in the 70s depending on the timing and development of clouds. Despite the cooler afternoon high temperatures, the humidity won't let up until after the front crosses so today will still be another muggy day. Storms are likely to develop after lunch and could come with gusty damaging winds. These rainfall-heavy storms are expected to dump a lot of rain when they move through. Remember: turn around, don't drown! Never drive through flooded roadways. Six inches of moving water can make you lose control of your vehicle, especially small cars.

Friday may feature a stray shower or storm but should be a significantly drier and less humid day compared to Thursday. Temperatures will be in the upper-60s/low-70s. It could get gusty at times in the wake of the front. Winds could gust up to 25 mph throughout the day.

Saturday is the "pick of the week" with temperatures expected to be in the low-80s along with low humidity and plenty of sun. With high pressure dominating the forecast through the weekend and start to the week, rain chances don't come back into play in the forecast until midweek next week.

TODAY: Showers and storms likely. Mostly cloudy. Muggy. Highs in the low 80s.

TONIGHT: Strong storms likely. Flash flooding likely. Lows in the mid-70s.

FRIDAY: Few lingering showers. Mostly cloudy. Gusty winds. Highs in the upper-60s/low-70s.

83/69; Record High: 94 (1954); Record Low: 55 (1996)

MARINE (Long Island Sound): NE/E winds 10-15 mph, Seas 1 ft or less, Low visibility

SUNRISE/SUNSET: 5:50 a.m., 8:11 p.m.